It’s bittersweet to write this edition of Ankit’s Cool OKC Thunder Newsletter. The Thunder came into the season with expectations to once again be a bottom 5 team in the league. I don’t blame anyone for thinking that. I mean hell, even I thought we’d have 24 wins in the pre-season. But against all the odds the Thunder have crushed all expectations of them this season. So even though it’s a little sad to know that this is the end of yet another Thunder season, I don’t think I’ve had this much fun watching them in a while!
The SparkNotes
The Good
Team Accolades
40-42 record
#10 team in the West
+18 wins from last season
+16 wins over Vegas pre-season predictions
Made the Play-In Tournament
Beat New Orleans in Play In Game #1
Lost to Minnesota in Play In Game #2
Individual Awards
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jalen Williams
Mark Daigneault
It’s really awesome to see the narrative shift around the Thunder and see their hard work be recognized. However, more importantly - OKC has made it clear that we are a legitimate team that is going to challenge any team on any night.
On top of that, we answered the biggest question from last year: can Shai and Giddey play winning basketball together? The answer, simply put, is yes. Giddey has done an especially good job playing off ball more while the two of them have benefited a ton from the added spacing created by shooters like: Isaiah Joe, Wiggins and all 3 of the Williams. As a team, despite not having a true starting center1, the Thunder had the #13 Defensive Rating in the season (113.2) which speaks to the effort and discipline that Mark Daigneault has the team playing with.
The Bad, and the Not So Ugly
This brings me to the not so great stuff from this season and what steps we can take to fix them. But really they aren’t so bad, or at least not unexpected in my eyes.
The biggest problem the Thunder suffered from was our lack of physicality. We consistently got killed on the boards (#21 defensive rebounding team) and lacked a true rim protector who could have deterred shots at the rim. One obvious answer to this is Chet Holmgren who brings much needed size and rim protection to the team. It looks like he’s bulked up a bit and given his prolific defensive season at Gonzaga and during the 2022 Summer League, he should make an impact quickly.
That being said, one person is not going to solve this problem in its entirety. We can continue to load up with talent in the 2023 draft and should look to draft players who can give us a “nasty edge” in Sam Presti’s words. Most importantly, the players on the roster have to take it upon themselves and take a step forward in this regard. Guys like Poku, Dieng and JayWill will have to improve to give us the breadth and depth of players to compliment the rest of our team.
In a similarly vague sense, consistency in play is another crucial facet to improve in. The 2022-2023 were the 2nd youngest team of all time (only 2nd to the 2021-2022 OKC Thunder LOL) and as a result there were a ton of growing pains. Like I said before, the Thunder exceeded nearly every expectation but oscillated between high highs and low lows throughout the season. I don’t necessarily expect the Thunder’s record in 2023-2024 to be significantly better or worse than this past season, however a sign of development would be limiting some of the volatility in their play. This is something that only comes with experience as the team matures and certainly won’t be easy as we look to add a potentially franchise changing player like Chet Holmgren.
State of our Team
I’ve categorized the the team into 4.5 different buckets. I won’t bore you with re-reading my thoughts on some of these guys I’ve written stuff on before. So I’ll share links when appropriate!
Core - These are guys we will likely be signing to significant long term deals when the time comes. These will also likely be perennial starters on the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Link
Jalen Williams - Link
Josh Giddey - Everything I hoped Giddey would improve on between year 1 and year 2, he addressed. He became more efficient at all 3 levels, drew some more free throws, and played off ball with Shai. Giddey’s numbers across the board improved and he has slotted into all sorts of creative roles on the team. His talent speaks for itself, especially as a gifted passer, and he’s still not even 21 years old!
Chet Holmgren - It’s a little weird to consider Chet in the same light as the above guys. That being said, based on everything I’ve heard and seen about Chet this year - I have a pretty good feeling Chet is here to stay. If you want to read more about my thoughts on Chet, check out my Pre-Draft and Summer League issues!
Tier 1 Role: These are guys who will likely be in our playoff rotation (top ~8) if/when we get there. Signing these players to significant long-term contracts is on the table.
Lu Dort - By far our best perimeter defender on a pretty fairly valued contract. Unfortunately, Dort had a pretty disastrous time finishing shots at the rim. If he can limit his offensive volatility, Dort would easily be considered a core piece of this future rather than a role player in my opinion.
Kenrich Williams - Kenny Hustle was the epitome of a Swiss Army Knife for the Thunder this year. He was one of our best perimeter defenders (alongside Dort) and basically filled any role that was missing based on the other 4 guys on the court. He’s a jack of all trades whose value really showed when we played him at the 5 spot which allowed us to play small ball to great effect.
Isaiah Joe - Isaiah Joe is one of the best 3 point shooters in Thunder history2. He was an absolute steal of a pickup this offseason. The spacing he provides on the floor is a godsend and his growth as a player to add a midrange pull-up and even some tertiary playmaking has been amazing. On top of that, despite his frail frame, he has been a surprisingly solid defender. Certainly not one of our best, but he hasn’t been much of a liability at all which is really all I could want from him.
Aaron Wiggins - Aaron Wiggins is just a solid basketball player. Another solid perimeter defender who can dribble, pass and shoot. Since his rookie season he’s been pretty efficient and doesn’t make too many mistakes.
Tier 2 Role: These are guys who will get minutes to give some of the better players rest during the long regular season.
Aleksej Pokuševski - Oh Poku, our lovely little unicorn. He’s been a bit of a meme among Thunder fans, but this past season was the first time where he seemed in control and comfortable in a role. He was our best rim protector - which isn’t saying a whole lot, but certainly promising to see him take an important step forward in his development. He’s still very much a project, but is trending the right way.
Jaylin Williams - JWill valiantly stepped up to fill the center position after Poku got hurt and we traded away Muscala. He was a lot better than I expected on offense with his 3 point shooting and playmaking, I think he still has a ways to go defensively. Frankly, I’m not convinced that the flashes are here to stay. That being said he’s earned his minutes as a rotation player.
Lindy Waters III - Lindy had an inconsistent season with respect to his minutes, but still managed to earn some minutes in both of OKC’s play-in games which just barely keeps him out of the fringe for me. His 3 point shooting and improved defense in short stints gives me just enough confidence to put him over the edge of the fringe.
Fringe: These guys are unfortunately not getting many minutes during regular season games and may be on their way out if things don’t change in a reasonable amount of time.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - JRE had a disappointing season that was riddled with injury. Personally I was bullish on him being a stretch 4, but he hasn’t really been quite there all season. The rise of JayWill also ate into his potential minutes.
Tre Mann - The former supernova off the bench has had a very tough season as well. His lack of efficiency and turnovers made it really hard to see where he would get minutes given OKC’s very good ball-handling lineup of Shai, Giddey and JDub. When he’s cooking, Tre scores with ease like nobody else, but when he’s not - it gets pretty ugly.
Dario Šarić - Šarić was a mid-season acquisition and actually was pretty good for the Thunder. The only reason he’s on the fringe for me is because it’s uncertain if he will want to return to the Thunder on a reasonable contract. He could very well want to go to a contender which would be understandable. On the court, he provided great size, floor spacing, and passing from the center position. He was great for a solid 10-15 minutes a game and quite frankly I would love to have him back as a backup to Chet next season.
Wildcard - This is the half bucket!
Ousmane Dieng - We honestly haven’t seen enough from Dieng this season for me to classify him into any of the categories above. Some of the flashes have been quite promising, but I think we’re still a year or two away from really knowing what we have with Ousmane. I don’t think he’s at risk of losing his roster spot, but I also don’t know if he’s a long term piece yet.
What do we need to do this offseason?
Just like last year, the most important thing for the Thunder to capitalize on this Summer is the draft. This year the Thunder just have 1 first round pick in the lottery as well as a couple of second round picks too. Even though we’ve started to see the core of OKC come together, it’s important for OKC to continue to grab as much talent as possible because the team is still incredibly young.
With all the unexpected success this year, many people may feel tempted to push the button and draft for fit. But at the end of the day, the Thunder really aren’t that close to where they want to be, title contention, and still need time to develop and grow. As a result, picking the most talented player we can get and figuring out how they can grow with the rest of the guys is more important than finding a guy who can slot into a hole. One thing to keep an eye on is potentially using future draft picks (2024 and onwards) to try to acquire a second pick in this draft. The motivation for this would be to acquire another player who is closer to the timeline of the guys we have now and have them grow with the core.
The Thunder also have ~$30 million in free cap space this off season as well. I don’t expect us to do a whole lot with it but some potential ideas include acquiring some front court depth to give Chet and Poku some relief at the 5 spot. Some players that could be acquired for cheap-ish and more importantly short term deals include: Mo Wagner, Naz Reid and Andre Drummond. Re-signing Dario Šarić is also an option and would be a great choice in my opinion. If the Thunder are willing to get a bit more aggressive, throwing an offer at Grant Williams in his restricted free agency could also be a play. However, this is not something I’m too excited to do because I think Williams would be looking for a bigger role than he has in Boston to match his new deal.
In the likely scenario where the Thunder decide to not make any minor moves, I think absorbing a bad (expiring) contract for more draft capital is always on the table. You can never have too much ammunition for the future.
What should we expect to happen this offseason?
So what should we expect? I mention some of these things above, but honestly - we’re probably not gonna see anything crazy.
Here’s what I expect:
Draft (I’ll get into this more in a subsequent issue)
Absorb some sort of bad contract to gain some draft compensation.
Summer League! Expect to see Ousmane Dieng, Tre Mann and whoever we draft in the 2023 draft to get some good run.
Conclusion
The 2022-2023 will likely be looked at as an inflection point in the Thunder’s rebuild. Though we haven’t gotten back to the promised land of the playoffs - we’ve made more progress than I could have ever hoped to see between last season and now. That being said, often times in the NBA - progress is not linear. There’s a lot to be excited about, but still a long way to go before we are close to the ultimate goal of a Larry O’Brien trophy. Winning a championship is a multi-year process, and it’s still early days for Oklahoma City - but this season is proof that we’re going in the right direction.
Helpful Links
Here we go again…
Jaylin Williams did an admirable job, but he was not meant to be our starting center, or really even our first backup for the majority of the season.
The bar is pretty low. 😭
Thanks for the write up, loving them!