Hello, hello - I’m back with another issue of Ankit’s Cool OKC Newsletter! Just in time for the 2022 NBA Draft this Thursday, June 23. As always, this newsletter will focus on the draft with an OKC slant, but some of the thoughts in here are definitely applicable to other franchises as well! If you are interested in catching up on the last issue and learning more about the 2021-2022 OKC Thunder roster, you can find that here.
This year, the Thunder have the #2, #12 and #34 picks in the draft. I’ll be talking about some of the potential options for the Thunder at each of these slots and what I would think is the ✨ ideal ✨ outcome. Because the Thunder are one of the worst teams in the NBA, it’s important for us to draft players who are above anything else - talented. If a talented player fills a hole on the team, that is icing on the cake, but ultimately we just need more good players on the team.
I’ll mention that trades are a possibility for the Thunder this year but I’m not going to talk about them in this article because it introduces too many variables for my little peanut sized brain to write about.
Hopefully you find some helpful information in here to make your draft viewing experience more enjoyable!
Options at #2
The 2022 draft has been headlined by three Freshman bigs: Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Duke’s Paolo Banchero and Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. Each of these players has distinct strengths and weaknesses. It is all but certain that these will be the top 3 picks in the draft and OKC will pick one of them.
I’ll throw in some player comparisons just for fun as well! 1
Chet Holmgren
My player comp: super Draymond Green with a great 3 point shot and less playmaking
We’ll start the discussion with arguably the most controversial player in this draft: Chet Holmgren. Chet is a 7 foot center who is an elite rim protector and fantastic shooter who has shown the ability to handle the ball and even make some passes. He averaged 14 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3.5 blocks and 1.5 steals a game. Most impressively, his shooting splits were 60-39-71 which included shooting 80% at the rim that has been made possible with Chet’s long arms and great dexterity with both hands. Holmgren has been one of the best trailing three point shooters while also being able to run the fastbreak and bring the ball all the way to the rim himself. This unique combo of skills makes him extremely tricky to guard regardless of where he is on the court. He also made a living working from the high post with Drew Timme at Gonzaga by getting the ball exactly to Timme or finding open shooters when defenders came to clog the paint. As a result, Chet has clearly defined himself as an elite stretch big prospect who can finish plays both at the rim and at the three point line with flashes of playmaking potential from a non-traditional playmaking position.
However, Chet’s true strengths lie on the defensive side of the ball. Chet is a long, long, LONG player with incredible defensive instincts. Despite his slight frame, Chet knows how to be in the right position by reading a play as it’s happening to put himself in the best position to defend the shot. In the scenarios where he does get beat, he has enough length to recover and defend the shot at the rim. His ability to defend the rim is his one of one, truly elite skill. His ability to defend the pick and roll is not as impressive, but once again due to his length and instincts, he is still very effective.
The ultimate question mark around Chet is his slight frame. How does he handle banging down low with grown men who weigh anywhere between 20 to 50 more pounds on him. It is not a shocker that Chet has to put on some muscle, especially being 7’2 weighing 195 pounds. Like any other rookie, their first season will include a lot of physical and mental growth, and Chet will be no different. Despite this flaw, Chet has not let that stop him from being dominant. He takes bumps in the chest and does give up space, but once again his length allows him to successfully contest shots to great effect. He showed to great effect versus fellow first round prospects, Paolo Banchero during the NCAA regular season and Jalen Duren during March Madness. Overall, Chet’s main flaw is something that every player in the history of the NBA has been able to improve as they have access to a team’s professional resources and thus is not something I am super concerned about in the long term.
Paolo Banchero
My player comp: 2018-2019 Detroit Blake Griffin
On the other hand, Duke’s Paolo Banchero has made a name for himself as the most polished offensive player in this draft and looks to be the kind of guy you could build an offense around. He is a 6’10, 250 pound big man who shows elite playmaking ability. It is no exaggeration when you say he is the best passer in the draft, regardless of size and position. Banchero was a fairly efficient and effective scorer during his lone season at Duke where he put up 17 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists a game on a 48% shooting from the field, 33% from beyond the arc and 73% from the free throw line. His best spot on the floor is the high post, where he is able to size up a defender and make a move to pull up for a midrange shot or take them off the dribble and drive to the rim with incredible strength and touch. The latter being especially dangerous because if you send multiple defenders to him, he has shown the ability to pass the ball to teammates in somewhat tricky positions to create an easy shot for them.
Despite Banchero showing a ton of potential from within the three point line, question marks start to arise when you look to see if he can space the floor and operate from beyond the arc. The 33% that Paolo shot from three is okay but not the end of the world especially because his free throw percentage and general midrange shotmaking look to be fairly strong for a freshman. With that, I think Paolo will naturally improve his range and extend his range to the NBA three point line, though it may take some time.
Ultimately, if Paolo develops into the player I hope he becomes, he will be an offensive mismatch all over the floor. He is a three level scorer with a big body who is able to create shots for other players. This is the template for many of the great offensive players we have seen come up in the last 20 years (think of LeBron, Luka, Giannis etc. - not to say Banchero will be that).
For me, the question marks around Paolo are on the defensive side. He has slow foot speed and isn’t much of a rim protector which makes his role on defense a little tricky. His slow foot speed makes it difficult for him to be a great wing defender, especially versus quicker players. His body type definitely projects him to be more of a rim protector, but he isn’t a particularly explosive jumper and didn’t really show much rim protection ability at Duke (though he was playing with Mark Williams who is an excellent rim protector). Paolo seems to be this awkward fit on defense where he may be too slow on the perimeter and lacks the intuition of a rim protector. Another knock on his defense is he did show many moments where he seemed to disengage and not really play defense as hard as I would hope. I’m not going to condemn him much for that as he had to basically carry the entire Duke offense on his back and for some reason - great Duke freshmen (Zion, Tatum, Ingram, etc. all come to mind) tend to slack off for one reason or another and I’ll chalk Paolo’s disengagement up to ✨ the Duke effect ✨ since many of them eventually figured it out in the NBA. This isn’t to say Paolo can’t defend at all, but when you’re in the conversation for #1, every little bit counts.
Jabari Smith Jr.
My player comp: Tall Klay Thompson with even less ability to put the ball on the floor
Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. has had a meteoric rise up the draft boards this season. His shooting ability is by far the best in the draft. Jabari made a name for himself through extremely difficult midrange and three point shots which culminated in him to leading Auburn to a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Smith made 43% of his field goals, 42% of his three point shots and 80% of his free throws leading to him scoring 17 points and 7.5 rebounds a game. The Auburn offense did not do Jabari any favors in terms of getting him many open shots, and often he had to pull up and take jumpers because there wasn’t much else there on a play. Despite that, he hit shot after shot after shot with his patented 1-2 step into a jumper. And his jumper is pure as they come and basically perfect. It will without a doubt translate to the NBA. Maybe Jabari doesn’t end up being a star in the league (though I think he can be), he will no doubt have a long career with his shooting ability as a 3 point specialist.
Defensively, there’s a lot to love about Jabari. Unlike both Paolo and Chet, Jabari has the tools and the production to be a fantastic perimeter defender. His long arms on his 6’10 body combined with excellent lateral movement ability has made Jabari one of the best 1 on 1 defenders in college when guarding on the perimeter. Jabari moves well when he has his man in front of him, and on the off chance he is beaten, his incredible length helps make up for it and allows him to recover well. He can be a 1 through 4 perimeter defender and really give your bigs protecting the rim the time they need to get back into position when defending pick and rolls.
So what’s not to love? Jabari’s lack of dribbling ability was pretty evident last season. Jabari struggles to get to the rim (especially going left) and also struggles to finish through contact. As a result, if Jabari is unable to improve in these aspects, he’ll still have a great career, but not one that will hit the superstar aspirations that he has. However, by all accounts - Jabari Smith Jr has been said to be an incredibly hard worker (as cliche as that sounds) and is incredibly young relative to his peers. I don’t think these are issues that cannot be fixed once he gets to the league and if anything, I think it’s much easier to teach someone how to dribble and finish at the rim than teach them how to make difficult jumpshots.
The Ivey Conundrum
My player comp: Dwyane Wade but not as great of a defender
The electric guard from my alma mater (Boiler up!), Jaden Ivey, is arguably the most dynamic player in this draft. His ability to accelerate and get to the rim is comparable to guys like Dwyane Wade, Ja Morant and Russell Westbrook. His strengths include utilizing his speed to get to the rim and drawing fouls while doing so, both in the half court and in transition. Ivey looks to be effective as an offball slasher but is more effective with the ball in his hand in the pick and roll which allows him to put more pressure on the rim.
This last year both at Purdue and Team USA, Ivey has made incredible improvements to the biggest hole in his game: three point shooting. He now shoots a respectable 36% from beyond the arc. His year over year improvement has me feeling optimistic that he will be able to replicate this kind of production in the NBA as well.
Overall, I think Jaden Ivey is one of the best prospects in this draft, and has as strong of a case to be the #1 pick as Banchero, Holmgren and Smith. Now I know in my intro, I said the Thunder should not be worrying about fit. However, this is maybe one of the few times where it’s worth considering. OKC has solidified its backcourt with Josh Giddey and SGA being two different, yet elite talents that have shown incredible ability to run the offense on their own and together. Adding a third guard who does like to have the ball in his hand makes a 3 guard lineup very dicey since there is only one ball to go around. On the defensive side, this makes us very very small and makes it difficult to focus on the positionless basketball paradigm that Presti looks to be working towards.
With all that said, I don’t think OKC would be the best place for Ivey’s long term development because he doesn’t have a clear cut role next SGA and Josh Giddey. Especially because it seems the other 3 bigs are just as strong of prospects, I feel Jaden Ivey would not be a realistic pick for OKC despite him being one of the best prospects in this draft.
Who the hell is Shaedon Sharpe?
I’m not gonna sit here and pretend that I have any super informed opinions on Shaedon Sharpe. Sharpe is a highly touted high school prospect who, through a very convoluted chain of events, was able to forgo his Freshman year at Kentucky and declare for the draft. He looks to be a smooth athlete, with great size and a solid jumper but it is too hard for me to make any sort of strong opinion since he doesn’t have any collegiate or professional film to watch. So with that, I’ll just say, maybe he’s an option for OKC at #2, but probably not because the other four guys are proven with just as high of ceiling as Sharpe. 2
Options at #12
Along with Chet, Paolo, Jabari and Jaden I expect Keegan Murray to go well before the Thunder pick at #12. And since I’m not gonna consider trade situations in this post, I’ll skip over him in order to keep this as short as possible!
AJ Griffin (Duke): His high school tape had him looking EXPLOSIVE. He has excellent length, strength and size. Injuries his senior year led to a shaky season at Duke that eventually stabilized into a decent player. Great spot up 3 point shooter. Showed a little ability to read a defense and pass the ball. Didn’t quite show the athletic ability that got him to Duke while he was at Duke. Drafting him early means you are betting that you can help him regain his athleticism.
Ben Mathurin (Arizona): Big, athletic wing. Probably the second best shooter in the draft behind Jabari Smith (37% from 3 this season). Excellent off ball player who knows how to cut to the basket. Like Jabari, he also struggles with his handle.
Dyson Daniels (G League Ignite): Big frame with creation ability. Excellent one on one and on ball defender. Also not a great shooter. He honestly reminds me of Josh Giddey w/ better one-on-one defense and worse (not to say bad) playmaking.
Jalen Duren (Memphis): A super young traditional center with an elite, NBA size body (6’11 height, 7’5 wingspan, 250 pounds at 18 years old). Elite rebounder and will be able to match the strength of most NBA players. Doesn’t really show any outside shooting. Drafting him likely means you think your team can continue to develop his skills to match his physical tools.
Jeremy Sochan (Baylor): Potentially this year’s Scottie Barnes? Excellent defender who can defend 1 through 5 and has a great feel for the game. He has displayed excellent passing ability despite not being asked to be a primary creator for his team. Hasn’t shown signs of great shooting ability at Baylor but his shot doesn’t look horrendously broken. If an NBA shooting coach can help him get that to even league average level, he will be the steal of the draft.
Johnny Davis (Wisconsin): Tenacious defender who is willing to fight over screens and stick to his man in a pick and roll situation. He can basically create any shot that he wants, but settles for his mid range jumper a bit too much than I would hope. The Wisconsin offense was carried solely by him and he is not afraid of having to try to make wine out of water if needed. I see him being a lot more efficient in a situation where he doesn’t have to do so much which paired with his defensive ability should make for a solid wing player to compliment more ball dominant creators.
Malaki Branham (Ohio State): Certified bucket getter. He can make shots at the rim, in the midrange and beyond the arc. He improved his 3 point shooting a ton from high school which has slingshotted him into lottery consideration this draft. Reports from his interviews with teams in the pre-draft process have been nothing but glowing. Seems like he can be an excellent secondary/tertiary scoring option for a rebuilding team.
Mark Williams (Duke): Traditional center. Great rim protector that struggles on the perimeter. Excellent lob threat but didn’t show any extended range. Pretty good free throw shooter though.
Ousmane Dieng (NZ Breakers): A prospect with amazing size and length who is able to move incredibly smoothly on offense. Had a shaky first half to the NBL season but started to get into a good flow towards the latter half. He is a player with great feel for the game who can get to the rim with ease and make passes off the bounce for his teammates. In the second half of the season, he started to display some shooting talent. A player with his fluidity and size will be a monster if he is given the opportunity to develop and play through mistakes.
Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky, sorta…): See above!
Tari Eason (LSU): Great and versatile defender. Made a good amount of 3s (36%) and free throws (80%) but has a weird shooting motion that may need to be reworked in the NBA. Also really struggles going left and is very turnover prone. Could be a good 3 and d player if you believe in the jumper long term.
Options at #34
I honestly don’t have the time or patience to scout every player in the draft to great detail, however here are a couple of names for players that may be available towards the end of the first round that we may pick up. This is by no means exhaustive:
Wings: Kendall Brown, Nikola Jović, Christian Braun, Jalen Williams, Trevor Keels, Wendell Moore
Bigs: Christian Koloko, Ismaël Kamagate, Patrick Baldwin Jr
The Dream Scenario
#2
Chet Holmgren is (in my opinion) the player with the highest ceiling in this draft and also would be able to fill a massive need on the Thunder roster. The Thunder desperately need floor spacing and rim protection and no other player in this draft provides both in excess like Chet. On top of that, Chet’s ability to function as part of a system where he plays a role in getting the ball to various play finishers (like Drew Timme at Gonzaga) fits the unselfish style of basketball that Mark Daigneault has brought to this new age Thunder team. It also helps that he speaks very highly of the organization and the long term vision for the roster. Chet is a match made in heaven for Oklahoma City.
#12
Given that the Thunder have some runway in terms of developing players, I would be very happy to gamble on Shaedon Sharpe. I’m really just going off what people have said and believe Sharpe would be the type of high risk gamble that is worth making.
Ben Mathurin would be the perfect complimentary player to spread the floor and connect with Giddey on offball plays. The more shooting OKC can gather, the more room our cornerstone pieces like SGA and Giddey have to operate. And ultimately we need to improve our league worst three point shooting at all costs. I don’t expect Mathurin to be available at #12, but hey - one can hope, right?
Another interesting option is Jeremy Sochan. He doesn’t actually check the “good shooter” box, but everything else about his game feels so Thunder-y. He is a versatile and excellent defender. He knows how to read defenses and get the ball to an easier shot, and if that doesn’t scream Thunder basketball then I don’t know what does. He would be an excellent frontcourt partner with Chet (if he is indeed the pick at #2) in a year or two, especially if Sochan’s jumper can progress!
With all this being said, I think there are a number of other guys who would be excellent fits on OKC like Griffin, Davis, etc. but these are a couple that I really like.
#34
Honest to god I am not really super familiar with the prospects at this range. But if the first 12ish picks go as I hope, then I don’t mind swinging for the fences on a guy like Patrick Baldwin Jr. He is a floor spacing big who showed great shooting ability in high school, but after a disastrous season at University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee, I’m unsure of how good he actually is.
Another option would be to pick up a traditional big like Ismael Kamagate or Christian Koloko to give us some much needed depth at the center spot to pair with Chet (if Chet is the pick at #2).
Conclusion
To sum things up, the Thunder have a lot of great options to pick from at #2 and #12 in the first round as well as another opportunity in the second round at #34. Ultimately, the Thunder are looking to draft talented players who can be longterm pieces for the team. Luckily, the top talents in this draft look to fill some of the biggest needs for the team! Unlike in the previous pre-lottery issue, the results of this draft are actually in the hands of my lord and savior, Sam Presti, instead of some mystical ping pong balls. The Thunder will make some of the most important decisions in the franchise’s history on Thursday and maybe I get some of these picks right 👀👀👀
If you have any thoughts about anything I wrote, feel free to reach out on Twitter @ankitpancakes!
Helpful Links
I’m still not going to attempt to cite these in any way shape or form.
This is not to say that these players are as good as the comparison. It is more stylistic than anything else.
June 19 - In recent weeks, it seems Sharpe’s stock has fallen and he is a more realistic choice for a team picking in the 6-12 range.