After what seems like an eternity - I am FINALLY back with a new issue of Ankit’s Cool OKC Thunder Newsletter. Part of the reason for that was that I had originally planned to write this issue to make the argument for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander deserving a spot on the Western Conference All Star Team. It turned out that Shai came out of the summer a changed man and had the best season of his life while dominating the NBA. While that was super fun to watch, it made my original idea significantly less interesting to write about since by the time December had come around - it was more or less a given that Shai was gonna make the team in some capacity (either as a starter or reserve).
So I decided, let’s aim a little higher. I believe there’s a very strong case for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to make an All-NBA team this season. And hopefully, will be the first of many.
Here’s some context on the Thunder’s season so far. Despite a pretty poor 11-18 start to the season through mid December, the Thunder have turned the season around especially in the new year with a 21-17 record1 since January 1st with the #7 net rating in the league (+3.5). This has been on the back of the star of Thunder and this article: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Who is in contention
The point of this article is to make the case for Shai, but I believe it’s also important to know who his competition is. Realistically, the pool of potential candidates will be one of the players selected for the all star team. You can think of the All Star team players as roughly the top 30 players (with some exceptions2) while the All-NBA team threshold is a more selective top 15 player list (again, with some exceptions). Of those 15 spots, 6 are designated for guards.
For starters, I’ll start off with the people who I think have the weakest cases for making the All-NBA team and I would be surprised to see them make it. I don’t really want to get into the long list of reasons why Kyrie Irving shouldn’t be on an All-NBA Team because we could talk about it for hours, but Kyrie isn’t gonna make any team. Feel free to Google why if you are unfamiliar! Next, as much as I love what Anthony Edwards has been doing this season, I think his last second add to the All Star Game and lack of overwhelming team success signal a weak claim to an All-NBA team (especially over Shai).
This leads us to my next bucket of candidates who are on the fringe of (not) making an All-NBA team. Tyrese Haliburton has been one of the breakout stars in the NBA this year. He’s in the mix for being the league leader in assists, and had the Pacers in a fairly competitive spot in the first half of the season. The Pacers might be coming down to earth a bit but Haliburton’s 20/4/10 statline on 49/40/87 shooting splits is very impressive, especially for a first year player leading his team as “The Guy”. Jrue Holiday on the other hand is a seasoned veteran who is arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA. Holiday has done a masterful job helping to keep the Bucks at the top of the standings with Giannis while Khris Middleton has missed time. Holiday’s 19/5/7 on 47/38/86 shooting is maybe not the most eye-popping statline, however when combined with Holiday’s defensive impact - you won’t find very many players who contribute to winning basketball like him. The King’s De’Aaron Fox is having an unbelievable season. Fox is averaging 25/4/6 on a ludicrous 52% shooting from the field while leading the league’s best offense. On top of that, the Kings have made an incredible leap from missing the playoffs for over a decade to becoming the #3 team in the West. And if that wasn’t enough, Fox has been by far the most clutch player in the NBA and is a big part of why the Kings continue to close out games and LIGHT THE BEAM.
It’s pretty surreal to think that these next two players have been considered some of the best guards in the league for a couple years now, have multiple All Star and All-NBA Team bids to back that - and even still might be playing better than ever. However, I am a firm believer in the old adage: the best ability is availability and these guys just can’t seem to stay on the court enough. Steph Curry has been nothing short of spectacular when he’s on the court. Despite how good Steph has been this season Steph will only play 56 games this season and I don’t think that is enough games to be deserving of a spot on an All-NBA team. Similarly, Damian Lillard is also having arguably the best season of his career. However his inability to stay healthy, lack of success with his team and Portland’s plans to shut down Dame for the last 9 games of the season hurts Dame’s case.
Finally, this brings me to my All-NBA team locks. Ja Morant is the most explosive guard in the NBA, leading the best young team in the league, and coincidentally the player who I think Shai is compared to most often. Ja is a phenomenal player whose ability to get to the rim is only rivaled by his ability to jump over defenders. His arrival on the Grizzlies marked the dramatic shift from rebuilding team in limbo to perennial playoff threat and borderline contender. His 27/6/8 on the 2nd best team in the west as the clear #1 option should earn him his second All-NBA team selection. My other two locks are: Donovan Mitchell and Luka Dončić. Mitchell has been a surprise story for me this year. I was a pretty big skeptic of his ability to elevate the Cavaliers to the next level, and I really couldn’t have been more wrong. With the addition of Mitchell, the Cavs have gone from a fringe playoff team who can make some noise to a dark horse candidate to come out of the East. The fit couldn’t have been more perfect as Cleveland was a rugged team built around an effective defense anchored by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Even though he plays next to Darius Garland who filled the lead guard role last year, Mitchell has slotted in perfectly as a #1 scoring option who can get the Cavs a bucket as needed. With career highs in shooting (27ppg on 47/38/88 shooting splits), his individual performance combined with his impact on winning basketball games makes him a no-brainer All-NBA Selection in my eyes. Dončić on the other hand is probably the least surprising selection among all of the players talked about today. Since his second year in the league (currently in his fifth), Luka has been on the All-NBA first team and in the MVP caliber-ish season. This season might be his best so far. Luka carries an incredibly mediocre (if not poor) cast of role players to playoff contention (and beyond) every year and this season is no different. His 33/8/8 statline on 50% shooting is honestly just bonkers considering how much opposing teams have to gameplan around him. Luka is simply one of the 5 best players in the NBA and will rightfully sit atop the All-NBA teams again this year as the best guard of the 2022-2023 season.
Why Shai
So why Shai? In an NBA that is increasingly more focused on the three point shot, it is weird that Shai dominates the game exclusively inside the arc. This is his 3rd year leading the league in drives to the paint, beating out his more well known contemporaries like Giannis, Luka and Ja. He has driven to the rim 1512 times this season (Brunson is #2 with 1287) by averaging 24 drives per game (Ja is #2 with 20.8). Shai completely changes the shape of how defenses operate because he will attack the paint relentlessly, and if you do not put someone in between him and the rim he will through your defense and get easy layups time and time again.
A consequence of him driving to the rim so much is that Shai is also near the top of the league in free throw attempts (10.7/game) and makes (9.6/game). Even though the name suggests that a free throw should be… free - I think it’s very understated how crucial it is for elite scorers to create opportunities to score at the free throw line. Scoring points while the shot clock is not moving, especially when someone like Shai makes 90% of his free throws, makes this basically the highest expected value you could achieve from a single possession in basketball. For reference, a 3 point shot in Steph Curry’s best season amounts to 1.35 points per possession (45% chance of making a 3 point shot) and a 3 foot layup attempt from any 7 foot center (i.e. Rudy Gobert) amounts to roughly 1.6 points per possession (80% chance of making a 3 foot layup). Shai isn’t the only guy shooting 90% from the free throw line, but he is one of the few to have ever scored that well on this kind of volume. When the Thunder offense is struggling, you can bank on Shai creating his own advantages for the highest quality shots (aka free throws) much to the chagrin of his opponents.
Despite scoring a ton of layups and making a lot of free throws - SGA has other ways to slice up a defense to make him nearly impossible to guard. Shai’s midrange game is right up there with the best in the league (shoutout DeMar DeRozan). He has dozens of ways to get to his spots in the paint because of his large frame, lanky go-go-gadget arms, and super weird change of pace. This lets him score like this, this, and this and also sometimes like this. The midrange game is not particularly popular nowadays, especially in an analytics heavy world - but any shot is a good shot if you are good enough to make it and Shai’s impeccable footwork in the paint has made what should be a weakness in his shot selection into one of his strengths. Ultimately, defenders are placed in a tough spot when guarding him because you don’t know what you should and shouldn’t sacrifice when guarding him because he is good at the things you normally would be willing to concede.
Lastly, Shai’s improvement on defense has been one of the most important developments to his game. Shai’s size had always made him serviceable, but this season he has truly made the leap to becoming a two-way star à la Devin Booker two years ago. Last season, Shai ended the season injured and took some time to rehab and recover and joined Team Canada for the summer. While there, he showed off an incredible defensive performance against lesser competition in a low stakes friendly game. What I had thought was just a flash in the pan ended up being a precursor to what was to come. He has done a really good job using his length to cut off passing lanes to force transition opportunities, work effectively as an offball help defender and also just straight up lockdown your opponent’s best player when he needs to. There are a bunch of bonkers stats that Shai has to his name that help quantify how much impact he has on the defensive end, but truly you just have to watch him play to understand his impact. Combine that with the immense responsibility and burden he has on the offensive side and when you start to seriously think about how many players have the kind of influence he does on both sides of the ball - the list becomes very narrow, very quickly.
What needs to happen
You should queue the Kobe Bryant “job’s not finished” clip for this.
If Shai wants to earn his claim on an All-NBA team this year, he still has to finish the job on the court. His performance thus far has been extraordinary, and it will be really important to continue that to the end of season. Like I said before, I’m a big believer in availability being the best ability and I think end of the year awards should reflect that. Getting to at least 65 games (~80% of the season) is a reasonable and fair expectation for an All-NBA player and Shai currently sits at 63 games played with 8 games left. It would help a ton if Shai can carry the Thunder to the Play-In Games, especially given the tired tanking narrative that has been pushed during the prior two seasons. Due to the competitive nature of the West3, I’m unsure if he and the Thunder can pull it off, but it would be an awesome addition to Shai’s resume if they could and likely solidify his claim.
My All-NBA Team Guard predictions
Nobody asked, but here are my predictions for this season’s All-NBA teams:
First Team: Luka Dončić, Donovan Mitchell
Second Team: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ja Morant
Third Team: De’Aaron Fox, Jrue Holiday
I notably left off Steph Curry and Damian Lillard primarily due to their lack of availability. I will add that one player I haven’t mentioned thus far is James Harden who is having a splendid season in Philadelphia this year could end up finding himself on one of these All-NBA teams as well4.
These predictions are mostly off gut feeling right now. I honestly don’t really feel that confident about which players will make what team. Usually some separation could be made based on team success but the due to how close the standings are (especially in the West) - it becomes really tricky to get these right. I will be surprised if I actually predicted any of these guard duos correctly. 😂
Conclusion
In a season where teams are probably as competitive as they’ve ever been - a lot of new faces are popping up and staking their claims to be part of the prestigious All-NBA team award. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is no different. Oklahoma City has a bonafide superstar in the making and this season is his coming out party. Shai is having as good of a season as any guard in the NBA and I think this will be the year that he is recognized for his abilities.
As always, if you have any thoughts about anything I wrote, feel free to reach out on Twitter @ankitpancakes!
As of March 25, 2023 - the day that I finalize my edits for this issue.
James Harden was snubbed of a spot on the Eastern Conference All Star team.
Making the playin-in should normally not be a super high benchmark however. The 6 seed and 11 seed are separated by 2 losses with less than 10 games to go. The tiebreaker situation adds an added element of chaos in the standings. [Source]
I’m not going to really go into too much depth as to why simply for the sake of time, however if James Harden gets a spot - I think he is deserving however I can also see him not making the team.