With the NBA Draft Lottery coming up on May 17, I thought it would be great to evaluate the Thunder roster as it is before we make any moves this offseason. The Thunder roster has many needs that need to be fulfilled before they become competitive. Everything that is said in this newsletter should be taken with a grain of salt!
Who do we got and what do they do?
In this section I’ll be talking about how I see some of the key roles on either side of the ball and which roles each player sort of fits into. This isn’t an end all, be all list of roles and characteristics for a team/player, however it’s a good exercise to help understand where the Thunder stand in terms of roster construction, and helps set the stage for potential moves.
This ended up being quite long, so be prepared for a wall of text!
Offense
The first category of players are creators. These guys not only are able to create shots for themselves, but more importantly can create shots for others. They can run the offense and generate easy shots for their teammates.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are the two obvious examples of creators on the team. Shai is an elite driving threat who can kick the ball out to shooters and Giddey is a phenomenal passer who is able to generate shots off all sorts of wacky angles.
Surprisingly, Aleksej Pokuševski has shown some improvement as a creator towards the end of the season which he ultimately topped off with a triple double in his last game played. I don’t foresee him being a primary guy, but I think he has shown improved ball handling and decision making that I would feel comfortable having him be a secondary ball handler on a play and as a primary for a few minutes while Giddey and SGA catch a breather.
Tre Mann is a player who has shown elite self creation ability. With some time, I think he should be able to use his ability to create space for a jumper to attack the rim and find teammates. Tre will likely continue to fill a Sixth Man role since he is a dynamic scorer, but when SGA and Giddey are off the court, it will be important for him to be able to create open shots for others.
Next, I’ll be talking about floor spacers. These types of players do what the name suggests: space the floor with their shooting ability. Unfortunately, the Thunder lack talent in this department as evidenced by our #30 ranked 3 point percentage (32.3%) and #7 ranked 3 point attempts (37.4 attempts/game).
Lu Dort, Mike Muscala, SGA, and Tre Mann are the only four players I would consider that have anything near a capable 3 point shot. Dort shoots 33.2% from beyond the arc on 7.7 attempts a game. His accuracy could be better, however he shoots enough 3s at an OK percentage that defenses have to defend him honestly. Muscala, on the other hand is by far and away the best 3 point shooter (42.9% from 3) on the Thunder, and the only player who could be considered a stretch big. SGA is a bit of a weird case as he only shot 30% from 3 this season, however this was heavily skewed by the amount of absurdly difficult shots he was taking pre-all star break. He has been a great shooter on his set shot as evidenced by his 39.5% 3 point shooting percentage in the month of March where he toned down the difficulty of three pointers as well as his season splits in the last 3 years. Ultimately, I would love to see Shai create his own stepback 3 pointer à la James Harden however I think that is a nice to have shot in his bag that doesn’t need to be forced so frequently in games. Tre has been a pleasant surprise from the 2021 rookie class making 36% of 3 point shots, including some very impressive stepbacks. I look forward to seeing him continue to improve in this aspect.
The rest of the roster contains a couple of mediocre shooters who are willing to shoot, but don’t really make an outstanding amount of shots. Kenrich Williams, Jeremiah Robinson-Earle and Vit Krejčí all also shoot ~34% from three on low-ish volume due to missing a lot of the season for various reasons. Poku and Giddey are two players who shoot the 3 poorly and I expect to improve this coming season especially given their responsibilities as ball handlers.
Special shoutout to Lindy Waters III who has been a great shooter, but played a relatively small amount of games when the Thunder shut down most of our starters in favor of the tank.
On the other hand, rim attackers (for lack of a better term) are players who are able to put pressure on the opposing defense by attacking the paint and scoring at the rim. An easy start to this discussion is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He currently leads league with 23.9 drives/game in the 2021-2022 season (Dončić’s 22.2 and Morant’s 20.9 are #2 and #3 for reference) which puts him at #2 in points per game on drives (13.9 points per game, second to Morant). I think it’s easy to say that he is elite in this aspect and reminds me very much of James Harden on the Rockets when it comes to his slithery playstyle getting to the rim.
The rest of the team doesn’t have anywhere near the ability that Shai has shown this last season - however there is definitely room for improvement among the young players. Josh Giddey has been a shockingly bright spot for the Thunder this season, and a lot of the Thunder’s future depends on how Josh develops as a player. His passing and playmaking already have him entering the conversation of great playmakers however his ability to get to the rim still needs some work. Specifically, Josh’s handle needs to improve if he wants to get to that next level. He has a nice spin move that he uses fairly successfully, but beyond that his bag is not particularly consistent or effective. Improvement in his handle will help him get to the rim - especially when he is defended tightly beyond the three point line which has given him trouble during the season. The bright side is, Josh is incredibly young and despite these holes in his game, he has shown a lot of improvement over this season.
Lu Dort has been a semi-consistent threat driving to the rim by attacking closeouts fairly effectively. His strength when finishing at the rim has been impressive, especially through a lot of contact. For a 3-and-D wing player, his knack for knowing when to drive and producing has been exactly what I would hope for. One aspect that he can improve on is looking to pass when driving instead of trying to bulldoze through multiple defenders. But, like many of our players, there is still plenty of time to improve their game due to their youth.
Tre Mann has shown to be an excellent three point shooter who is able to create A TON of space for himself, however he doesn’t take advantage of the space as much as one would hope. The next step in his growth is to not settle for so many (difficult) 3 point shots and attack the rim. As his body develops and he gains strength, I imagine Mann will be more willing and able to take some contact and drive to the rim where he has shown great touch around already.
The final bucket of players on OKC’s roster are the bigs. To be frank, our big situation is… not great. Mike Muscala has been a great player for the Thunder in short spurts. He provides shooting and size which are key in today’s NBA. On top of this, he has been an excellent locker room presence providing veteran leadership for this incredibly young team. Mike has proven to be a solid rotation player, but not someone we have counted on for big minutes. Darius Bazely has been a surprisingly good player this year. I have notoriously been a big Baze hater, but he has shown a significant amount of improvement in his decision making over the course of the season which has been a pleasant surprise for the Thunder. Bazely needs to continue to improve his decision making to reliably make decisions quickly and decisively (my biggest gripe with him in the past) as well as improve his shooting in general. Darius has a wildly inconsistent jumper that really can’t be relied upon in any way. If he can improve in his consistency, his athleticism paired with his skill will be a crucial part of this team going forward. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl has been another pleasant surprise as a rookie this year. He lacks some size but makes up for it in strength in the paint and a solid three point shot. JRE hasn’t really gotten a ton of run as a big, but he looks to be a great rotation piece and can serve as a small-ball five if needed.
Defense
The heart and soul of the OKC Thunder’s defense starts with our point of attack defenders. These are the players who guard the primary ball handler and make their life difficult. They also tend to be the better perimeter perimeter defenders on the team. Nobody on the Thunder embodies this more than Lugentz Dort. Dort has an incredible motor paired with great strength which has made him a very pesky defender. He has given some of the best players in the league problems (i.e. James Harden in 2020 playoffs). Dort is recognized pretty clearly as one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and it’s probably only a matter of time before he ends up on an All-Defensive team.
There aren’t many other players who I would expect to step up into this kind of role, especially to the level that Dort is at now - however I do think it’s important for SGA to be able to improve his on ball defense. He is blessed with a 6’11 wingspan on his 6’6 body which for a guard makes him huge. I don’t think it’s reasonable to see him fight over screens and hustle the same way Dort does, but I do think a transformation similar to what Devin Booker has made over the last two years in terms of consistently contesting shots with your length and forcing your opponents to your help is going to be crucial to the Thunder’s success.
Ultimately, the core of the Thunder’s defense is its rim protectors. These are the players who contest shots at the rim, bang with other big bodies and protect the paint. On the Thunder, Darius Bazely has shown himself to be a competent rim protector, being one of the few players in the NBA with more blocks (70) than fouls (68) this season. Baze is incredibly athletic and is able to use his length and strength to alter shots from any player at the rim. Like much of Bazely’s game, he has shown some very solid play when he is engaged and some not so great play when he is not. Mark Daigneault has spoken to this over the course of season and I would echo the sentiment that Bazely’s success in this league is dependent on his consistency.
A lot of the success that the OKC Thunder have seen defensively has come through our player’s ability to provide weakside help. Weakside help is when a player is able to come off their man to provide extra help to the side of the floor where the ball is. In the Thunder’s case, this happens when offensive players are funneled to the paint and our primary rim protectors have been pulled out of the paint due to various switches. Bazely has been a great help defender even when pulled out of the paint, using his athletic gifts to recover quickly and continue contesting shots at the rim. A surprising contributor in this facet has been Poku. Poku’s slight frame makes it difficult for him to bang with defenders in the paint, however his 7’3 wingspan and long strides make it very easy for him to cover a lot of ground and also contest shots at the rim. He was especially impressive in the latter half of the season proving himself to be a consistent piece of our defensive scheme. On the other hand, Josh Giddey is not gifted with incredible speed, however his large frame and great intuition for being in the right spots, especially in the low post, have made him an effective team defender. I don’t think Giddey will be able to cover large amounts of ground from the perimeter to come and contest shots at the rim, but he is able to generate turnovers by providing help in the paint which cannot be understated in this team’s success.
The rest of the Thunder players all fall into a hodgepodge of wing defenders who are largely interchangeable, with a few flashes of great defense every now and again. JRE, Kenrich Williams and Andrew Wiggins are three noteworthy pieces who have been pretty solid on the perimeter. However with the many combinations of lineups we have played and injuries, it has been hard to see them succeed consistently though the flashes have been promising.
What are we trying to do?
So, we got a bunch of guys on the team - some good, some not so good - and ultimately in the offseason, the question is: what are we gonna do to get better? To better answer that question, I think it’s important to understand what we are trying to build.
Based on our recent draft history in the last couple years, the Thunder are trending toward a positionless basketball paradigm. This isn’t a particularly novel idea as teams like Toronto and Boston have done excellent jobs in building like this. This allows a team to be extremely switchable on defense and have incredible versatility on offense. The ability to give opposing teams many different looks from the same five man unit is crucial on both sides of the ball in today’s NBA.
Like I said earlier, the Thunder have two fantastic creators in SGA and Josh Giddey who can run the offense comfortably and create shots for their teammates. However, as part of the positionless paradigm that I foresee, when the primary action of a particular play fails - our players should feel comfortable reading the defense and making plays with the ball. This ultimately results in a ball-movement focused offense that passes up good shots in favor of great shots.
What do we need?
With all that said, what are our biggest holes on this roster?
True floor spacers! In today’s NBA you simply cannot ever have too many shooters on your team. The Thunder only have 1 above average three point shooters in Mike Muscala (42.9%) and two rookies who look promising in Tre Mann and JRE. The more spacing we can get, the easier it becomes for our creators to weave through defenders to set up shots for other guys.
A true rim protecting big who can be a pick and roll partner for our guards! Currently Darius Bazely is our only noteworthy rim protector and has been fairly solid defensively. However, he isn’t quite a pick-and-roll partner which is something guys like SGA, Giddey and Mann desperately need when attacking the rim.
On top of this, the Thunder desperately lack defensive rebounding because we are simply just a small team since we don’t play with a true center. We don’t really have anyone who can out-muscle another player to get a board if needed and have been killed on defensive rebounds throughout the season.Perimeter Defense! Like in the previous point, we don’t have much athleticism on the perimeter (besides Dort) and some extra strength, length and speed will go a long way in giving us flexibility as well as another player (or two) who can make it tough for opposing guards from driving into the paint so easily.
Talent! At the end of the day, there are a number of promising players and even burgeoning stars on this team - but as it is with any rebuild - you simply just need more talent. OKC has done a great job drafting many young and promising players, but ultimately these are just various hedges to increase the probability that we hit on a prospect. We need to continue acquiring talented players, and can figure out the fit later if needed.
Conclusion
In conclusion, we have a couple of very promising young guards in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Shai looks to be a franchise cornerstone already and Josh has shown a lot of promise in his young career to be able to be the same. The rest of the roster has a number of guys who have shown flashes every now and again, and what it comes down to is becoming more consistent and limiting mistakes. This upcoming draft will be a huge opportunity for OKC to acquire some more young talent to fill in some of the gaps on the team as I don’t expect the Thunder to do anything too impactful in free agency this summer. The fate of this team’s upcoming season (and my general happiness) lies with a couple of ping pong balls in a couple of days!
If you have any thoughts about anything I wrote, feel free to reach out on Twitter @ankitpancakes!
Helpful Links!
Here are some helpful links that I used. And no, I’m not going to attempt to MLA cite these.